Scenario Planning
Uncertainty is now a constant across every sector. Leaders tell us their biggest challenge is planning for a future that keeps changing—funding shifts, new technologies, policy changes, supply-chain disruptions, or evolving community needs.
Scenario planning offers a structured way to navigate that uncertainty. Originally made famous by Shell Oil in the 1970s, the approach has been used by organizations worldwide to test assumptions, explore possible futures, and make resilient strategic choices. It helped Shell anticipate global energy shocks, supported South Africa’s peaceful transition from apartheid, and continues to shape climate and economic strategies today.
At North Star Strategies, we use scenario planning to help leaders across industries—from nonprofits to businesses, government, and coalitions—prepare for a range of possible futures. The goal is to strengthen decision-making, identify early warning signals, and ensure readiness for both risks and opportunities.
Below is the streamlined, actionable process used in our 3-hour Future-Proofing Your Organization workshops:
Future-Proofing Your Organization: Scenario Planning for Uncertain Times
Step 1: Define the Scope and Time Horizon
Step 2: Identify What Is Certain and What Is Uncertain
Step 3: Assess Your Current Situation
Step 4: Develop Plausible Future Scenarios
Step 5: Prioritize the Most Relevant Scenarios
Step 6: Identify Key Decisions and Indicators
Step 7: Assess Strategic, Financial, and Operational Implications
Step 8: Develop an Action Roadmap
Scenario planning helps leaders move from reaction to readiness. By exploring a range of possible futures, your team can make confident choices today that position your organization to thrive—whatever tomorrow brings.
Ready to future-proof your strategy?