We are hearing from many nonprofit leaders who say that ‘ongoing uncertainty’ is their biggest challenge. They worry about the impact on funding sources, shifting donor priorities, and the long-term sustainability of their programs. While uncertainty is a constant, nonprofits are no strangers to resilience.
Nonprofit leaders make decisions in the face of uncertainty every day, but the challenge grows when the future may look radically different from today. The process of scenario planning, first made famous by Shell Oil in the 1970s, has been used by organizations worldwide to prepare for uncertain futures. This approach helped Shell navigate global oil crises, influenced the dismantling of South Africa’s apartheid system, and shaped climate change strategies.
Today, nonprofits can apply scenario planning to navigate funding cuts, policy changes, economic shifts, and emerging community needs. Below is a streamlined, actionable process adapted specifically for nonprofit organizations that is the basis for our 3-hour workshops:
Future-Proofing Your Nonprofit: Scenario Planning for Uncertain Times
Step 1: Define the Scope and Time Horizon
Step 2: Identify What is Certain and What is Uncertain
Step 3: Assess Your Situation
Step 4: Develop Potential Scenarios
Step 5: Prioritize the Most Relevant Scenarios
Step 6: Identify Key Decisions and Indicators
Step 7: Assess Financial & Program Implications
Step 8: Develop an Action Roadmap
Scenario planning helps leaders stay proactive, flexible, and prepared. By developing strategies today, nonprofits can reduce risk and strengthen their ability to serve communities—no matter what the future holds. Want to learn more about how scenario planning can benefit your nonprofit? Contact us